A one term wonder?

Is Auckland soon to become Brown’s-town?
If the latest polls are correct, then the Labour-backed Manukau mayor Len Brown is about to whip former National Cabinet Minister and current Auckland City mayor John Banks butt and become the first bearer of the mayoral chains in the new Auckland super city.
So instead of having the stucco tones of the - at times – anal John Banks leading Auckland, the about to be super-sized city is highly likely to be headed by a skinny, white bloke with a dodgy ticker from South Auckland who has does embarrassing raps and face slapping.
According to a recent Herald on Sunday poll the Manukau mayor's South Auckland supporters have turned out in unprecedented numbers, giving him 56 per cent support among those who say they have already voted. The same poll says that Banks has won only 33 per cent of the votes cast so far, but he can still theoretically close the gap. To have a chance, he has to persuade many less-committed supporters to make the effort of ticking the box and mailing back their voting forms.
So far, Brown's core supporters on his home turf of Manukau have voted in far higher numbers than those in Banks' strongholds of Auckland City and the North Shore. But even in Auckland City, Brown has a slight lead.
Banks is in the lead only on the North Shore and among those who are uncertain about whether they will vote. The poll shows Brown receiving overwhelming support in Manukau, and from Maori and Polynesian voters.
There probably is not a great deal of surprise in this poll result – although the 20-plus % margin may raise a few eyebrows. Brown has led Banks for most of the campaign and by quite a margin early on. That was until revelations about the self professed ‘man of the people’ using his Manukau Council mayoral credit card to buy personal goods like groceries and a hi-fi stereo dented his halo and allowed Banks to make it more of a neck and neck race.
It is clear that Len Brown has had one big advantage over John Banks in this mayoral race - all along - and that is: he is not John Banks!
Banks – or Banksie as he like to call himself – is one of those politicians people just love to hate. He is a polarising figure who inspires many people who would not normally bother to vote – to get off their arses and cast the ballot against him. While New Zealand mayoral races - and local government politics in general – are renowned for usually only attracting a great deal of public apathy and a complete lack of interest from the general public, Banks does tend to enthuse and motivate his detractors to vote for anyone but him.
Banks has already felt the love and then the hatred of Auckland's electors. He was first voted mayor of the city back in 2001 and spent the next three years antagonising people so much that he was thrown out of office in 2004. However, while Banks has many faults, being a quitter is not one, and he spent the next three years “transmogrifying” (his own description) himself into a kinder, gentler persona and romped back again into the mayoral chains and Auckland Town hall at the 2007 election.
However, if the polls are to be believed, Banks transmogrification has not been enough for the wider Auckland public and because of this Len Brown will be the beneficiary – which is ironic as it is beneficiaries and those of similar ilk who will have voted for Brown in their droves.
Yet while Brown may be the winner on October 9 – I have a feeling that he will only be a one term wonder anyway. The advent of the super city has not been greeted with universal joy or much enthusiasm in the region. But the one thing that people do want – and expect - from their super-sized council is much lower rates. But this is something that just will not happen no matter who is mayor. (Especially one who has promised free swimming pools for all and an extensive new rail link from Orewa to the airport!)
So with Len Brown as mayor he will be seen as the figurehead of the new Auckland and because lower rates will not be delivered – the adoring masses (let’s call it the Obama effect) that voted for him in 2010 with such high hopes and even higher expectations; will quickly turn toxic as rates go up and throw him out in 2013.